Potassium self-sufficiency rate in China can exceed 80%
Recently, it was reported that Sinochem Group has withdrawn from the acquisition of Canada Potash Corp. (hereinafter referred to as “potashâ€). The news did not exceed the expectations of the industry. A number of researchers said that China's potash resources are not as scarce as the outside world thought. The above-mentioned researchers also believe that at the end of this year, the self-sufficiency rate of potash fertilizer in China will be as high as 80%. Therefore, Chinese companies should not blindly purchase large quantities of overseas potash resources, which is more suitable for closely monitoring market changes.
A person in charge of the Shanghai Potash Research Center stated that, first of all, China’s potash fertilizer imports have decreased in recent years. In 2007, China's potash fertilizer imports amounted to 9.41 million tons, which is the highest in history. “I personally believe that in the future China will not have such a high amount of imports,†the source said.
In 2008, the import of potash fertilizer quickly fell to more than 5 million tons, and in 2009 it was less than 2 million tons.
Analyst Zhang Ming said that in the supply of potash this year, there will be 4.6 million tons of transfused stocks from 2009, so the import volume this year will still not be too large, which is estimated to be about 3 million tons.
"After the import price of potash rose sharply in 2008, domestic compound fertilizer manufacturers could not afford high prices. Therefore, the consumption of potassium chloride (a type of potash fertilizer) was greatly affected. Domestic social stocks can only be digested if the price falls." Zhang Ming said.
The significant reduction in import volume is also related to the significant increase in domestic potash fertilizer production. Before 2004, the state had relatively little support for agriculture, and the use of potash fertilizer was also small. After 2004, preferential policies continued to be introduced, and international potash prices also increased, which led to the rise in domestic potash prices, followed by the Chinese potash fertilizer. The company's rapid expansion.
In 2009, the three major mineral potassium fertilizers including potassium chloride, potassium sulfate, and potassium magnesium were all reduced to potassium oxide, and the output was 5.5 million tons, and the self-sufficient rate of potassium fertilizer was 80%.
The aforementioned person in charge of the Shanghai Potash Technology Center also pointed out that although China’s largest potash fertilizer production site, Golmud, Qinghai, has encountered floods this year, production of potassium sulphate in Lop Nur, another major producing country, will reach over 900,000 tons this year (up from the previous year was 750,000 tons). ), there is a substantial increase, so this year's domestic potash fertilizer production is still not small.
"As of September 1, 2010, the total physical capacity of China's potash fertilizer plants built and put into use was 5.95 million tons (including potassium chloride, potassium magnesium sulfate, etc.) If this year's consumption is the same as last year, this year's potash domestic resources To meet the demand rate can have about 90%." Zhang Ming said.
Analysts also believe that the potash market is naturally different from the oil market, and caution should be exercised when it comes to large overseas acquisitions.
Analyst Zhang Hao said that although potassium fertilizer is very important to agriculture, it is not necessary to use potash every year. Currently, potassium is not as popular as urea and phosphate fertilizer in China. Zhang Ming also said that if potassium is used this year, it will no longer be used in the next 3-4 years. "It is not like the relationship between cars and oil. If you drive, you have to refuel in time."
A person at the Shanghai Potash Fertilizer Technology Center also stated that the state encourages the straw to return to the field and the potassium ions absorbed by the crop are generally left in the straw. Supplementing the organic fertilizer will add some potassium to the soil, thereby reducing the use of potash. Therefore, there will be no significant increase in the application of potash fertilizer in China in the future. When potash prices remain high, it is more difficult to increase the amount of potash fertilizer.
According to the analysis report of the International Fertilizer Industry Association Agriculture Committee, global potash consumption in 2009 was 45 million tons. With the current global production capacity of 70 million tons, potassium fertilizer has been surplus.
If calculated by the annual growth rate of 3%, by 2020, the global demand for potassium fertilizer may reach about 60 million tons. At that time, it is assumed that BHP Billiton has purchased potassium and increased its production capacity from 15 million tons to 27 million tons. Other countries such as Russia, Belarus, Canada and China will also expand their production at the same time. Global potash fertilizer production capacity will reach as high as approximately 10 years later. 120 million tons, the surplus rate of potash will also increase to 100%. Moreover, adding potassium is not likely to monopolize the global potash market.
Therefore, if Chinese companies make huge purchases and add potassium, they will not only benefit less, but they will also need to take considerable risks in the future.
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