Drought in the South will not have a significant impact on food prices

The Agricultural Bank of China released a research report on Monday that the drought in the south will not have a significant impact on food prices and the consumer price index (CPI) in the second half of the year.

However, the report stated that there is still a need to pay close attention to a number of uncertainties in the food market. For example, whether the drought will continue and spread further, whether the inflection point of the grain production cycle is approaching, and whether the international grain price will fluctuate significantly.

“Based on an analysis of China's grain regional production distribution and internal production structure, we believe that the drought in the south will not have a substantial negative impact on the total grain output for the whole year.” The report said that the reserve grain foundation laid for the seven consecutive years of grain yield increase was laid. It has a decisive role in curbing market short-term speculation.

According to the report, from the perspective of regional production layout, the grain output of the six southern provinces, such as Jiangxi and Anhui, accounted for about 27% of the country's total grain output, and the rice production accounted for 18% of the total, and the extent of internal disasters in the six provinces was not the same. Early rice production areas Not greatly affected.

From the perspective of grain production structure, early rice, which is the main affected crop, accounts for a relatively low proportion of grain in China. In 2010, the sown area and production accounted for 21% and 25% of the proportion of summer grains. “We believe that the harvest of the northern winter wheat production area is the key to guaranteeing a good summer harvest, while autumn grain production is the top priority for grain production throughout the year,” the report said. (Huang Yu)