Ale launches technical rebound

Ale from the high of 2,740 yuan/ton at the beginning of November began to enter the unilateral downtrend, until November 29 set a low of 2,582 yuan/ton in the month, temporarily supported and entered a rebound pattern. The author believes that after the market digests the negative factors in the previous period, the current rising market is more inclined to a technical rebound.

I. "Country 16" is intended to control circulation. The trend of excessive price increases has been initially contained. On November 20, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Circular of the State Council on Stabilizing the General Level of Consumer Price to Guarantee the Basic Lives of the Masses," and demanded that relevant The department took 16 measures in a timely manner. On the one hand, the country’s intention to curb excessive price increases is clear. If the market price irrationally repeats again, it is not ruled out that the relevant agencies continue to intensify their efforts until the price returns to a stable state. On the other hand, it is still unclear whether the measures can finally achieve its effect after the introduction of the measures, but initial signs indicate that the momentum of excessive price increases has been curbed and the initial effects have become apparent. It is very unlikely that prices will rise again before the end of the year.

In the hope that the expected measures are expected to produce further results, the possibility of re-stopping at 2,700 yuan/ton in the recent ale price rebound is less likely, because the price is precisely that in early November, the market fears that the country will put out a “combination punch” for stabilizing prices. Period of time.

Second, the rainfall is still relatively low, in some areas affected by wheat growth Recently, the weather in the main producing areas has become a key factor affecting the growth of winter wheat. Not only do domestic areas such as North China and Huanghuai show signs of drought, but the US winter wheat production areas are also suffering from a lack of rainfall. Market participants have expressed concern about potential losses.

Relevant data show that the sown area of ​​wheat in Shandong Province this year was 53.5 million mu, an increase of 50,000 mu over the same period of last year. At present, the drought-fighting area of ​​wheat in the province has reached 20 million mu. Recent meteorological department forecasts indicate that at the beginning of December, the precipitation in most of the northwestern region, western and southern North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, eastern and southern Jiangnan, and southern China was still less than normal year-on-year, with North China, Huanghuai, and the Jianghuai northern regions. The droughts in the areas where the deviations are found may continue to develop. If the weather continues to dry, the price trend for wheat is much more profitable. It is expected that the 1105 contract will rise to 2,628 yuan/ton, and it may even stabilize this position. On the contrary, if the weather improves, the market is worried about psychological decline, 1105 contract will be more difficult to stand on 2628 yuan / ton.

Third, the 1105 contract above the strong resistance of 2630 yuan / ton from a technical perspective, the main contract 1105 in mid-November out of the obvious "M" head fell and fell below the neckline (ie 2628 yuan / ton), which makes the neckline The position turned into a strong resistance to late price rebound. In operation, it is advisable to use technical rebound to do more, and consider profit taking near 2630 yuan/ton.